xG Calculator & Explainer
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot — how likely it is to result in a goal based on position, angle, and situation. Select your shot scenario below to calculate its xG value.
Calculate shot xG
Expected goals (xG)
0.1
Half chance
Scores on target roughly 10% of the time
xG by distance (central angle)
Key xG benchmarks
What is xG and how is it calculated?
Expected goals (xG) assigns each shot a probability score between 0 and 1 — representing the likelihood of that shot becoming a goal, based on historical data from thousands of similar chances.
The main factors that influence xG are: distance from goal (closer = higher xG), shot angle (central = higher xG), body part used (foot vs header), type of assist (through ball vs cross), and defensive pressure.
A single match's xG tells you which team created better chances. Over a full season, teams that consistently have high xG for and low xG against are genuinely strong sides — not lucky ones. Read our full xG guide →